Budapest in 2050: climate change in numbers
Budapest has warmed 1.7 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Bucharest, Romania today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 11.9–13.3 °C.
Budapest: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Budapest's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Budapest's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Budapest's 2050 climate is closest to Bucharest, Romania — about 600 km away.
| Budapest today | Budapest 2050 | Bucharest today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 10.9 °C | 12.6 °C | 11.9 °C |
| Average daily high | 15.3 °C | 17.0 °C | 16.7 °C |
| Hottest day | 35 °C | 37 °C | 36 °C |
| Frost days | 85 | 70 | 84 |
| Rainfall | 672 mm | 703 mm | 706 mm |
A year in Budapest, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Budapest
Tropical nights in Budapest (never cooler than 20 °C)
Frost days in Budapest (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.6 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.9–2.4 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 1 a year (1991–2020) to about 7 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 3 to 19 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Frost days fall from about 85 to 70 a year: shorter, milder winters.
Dangerous heat in Budapest
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 0 by 2050 and 0 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 3 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Budapest would average 13.2 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 38 °C and 12 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Budapest with…Climate change in HungaryViennaPragueWarsawBerlin
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Budapest be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Budapest's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 12.6 °C (range 11.9–13.3 °C across climate models), compared with 10.9 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 37 °C (99 °F).
Is Budapest getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.7 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Budapest, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Budapest feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Budapest's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Bucharest, Romania today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Budapest's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 13.2 °C and the hottest day at about 38 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026