Buenos Aires in 2050: climate change in numbers
Buenos Aires has warmed 1.0 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Chengdu, China today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 17.8–18.5 °C.
Buenos Aires: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Buenos Aires's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Buenos Aires's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Buenos Aires's 2050 climate is closest to Chengdu, China — about 18,300 km away.
| Buenos Aires today | Buenos Aires 2050 | Chengdu today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 17.3 °C | 18.2 °C | 17.3 °C |
| Average daily high | 20.6 °C | 21.5 °C | 21.0 °C |
| Hottest day | 33 °C | 35 °C | 37 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Rainfall | 1,091 mm | 1,135 mm | 1,099 mm |
A year in Buenos Aires, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Buenos Aires
Tropical nights in Buenos Aires (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 0.9 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.5–1.3 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 11 a year (1991–2020) to about 22 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 61 to 86 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
Dangerous heat in Buenos Aires
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 0 by 2050 and 0 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 1 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Buenos Aires
The sea at Buenos Aires is projected to rise about 19 cm by 2050 and 52 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Buenos Aires.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Buenos Aires would average 18.5 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 35 °C and 28 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Buenos Aires be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Buenos Aires's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 18.2 °C (range 17.8–18.5 °C across climate models), compared with 17.3 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 35 °C (94 °F).
Is Buenos Aires getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.0 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Buenos Aires, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Buenos Aires feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Buenos Aires's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Chengdu, China today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Buenos Aires's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 18.5 °C and the hottest day at about 35 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026