Dar es Salaam in 2050: climate change in numbers
Dar es Salaam has warmed 0.9 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Lomé, Togo today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 26.7–27.5 °C.
Dar es Salaam: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Dar es Salaam's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Dar es Salaam's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Dar es Salaam's 2050 climate is closest to Lomé, Togo — about 4,500 km away.
| Dar es Salaam today | Dar es Salaam 2050 | Lomé today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 26.0 °C | 27.0 °C | 26.9 °C |
| Average daily high | 28.5 °C | 29.5 °C | 29.6 °C |
| Hottest day | 32 °C | 33 °C | 33 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,133 mm | 1,112 mm | 1,135 mm |
A year in Dar es Salaam, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Dar es Salaam
Tropical nights in Dar es Salaam (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.0 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.7–1.5 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 68 a year (1991–2020) to about 137 by 2040–2059.
- Every night is already a tropical night (above 20 °C), so night-time heat stress rises with no cool season to recover in.
Dangerous heat in Dar es Salaam
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 0 by 2050 and 3 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 112 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Dar es Salaam
The sea at Dar es Salaam is projected to rise about 22 cm by 2050 and 58 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Dar es Salaam.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Dar es Salaam would average 27.4 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 34 °C and 169 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Dar es Salaam with…Climate change in TanzaniaNairobiAddis AbabaJohannesburgKinshasa
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Dar es Salaam be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Dar es Salaam's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 27.0 °C (range 26.7–27.5 °C across climate models), compared with 26.0 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 33 °C (92 °F).
Is Dar es Salaam getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.9 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Dar es Salaam, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Dar es Salaam feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Dar es Salaam's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Lomé, Togo today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Dar es Salaam's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 27.4 °C and the hottest day at about 34 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026