Houston in 2050: climate change in numbers
Houston has warmed 1.5 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Pune, India today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 22.0–22.8 °C.
Houston: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Houston's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Houston's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Houston's 2050 climate is closest to Pune, India — about 14,500 km away.
| Houston today | Houston 2050 | Pune today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 20.9 °C | 22.5 °C | 23.7 °C |
| Average daily high | 26.1 °C | 27.8 °C | 29.2 °C |
| Hottest day | 38 °C | 40 °C | 38 °C |
| Frost days | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,257 mm | 1,129 mm | 1,226 mm |
A year in Houston, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Houston
Tropical nights in Houston (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Houston (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.6 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.1–1.9 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) rise from about 17 a year (1991–2020) to about 54 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 160 to 185 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
Dangerous heat in Houston
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 5 by 2050 and 36 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 100 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Houston
The sea at Houston is projected to rise about 41 cm by 2050 and 94 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Houston.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Houston would average 22.8 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 40 °C and 67 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Houston with…Climate change in the United StatesDallasNew OrleansAtlantaMexico City
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Houston be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Houston's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 22.5 °C (range 22.0–22.8 °C across climate models), compared with 20.9 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 40 °C (104 °F).
Is Houston getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.5 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Houston, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Houston feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Houston's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Pune, India today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Houston's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 22.8 °C and the hottest day at about 40 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026