Lagos in 2050: climate change in numbers
Lagos has warmed 1.2 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — about as fast as the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Quezon City, Philippines today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 27.4–28.5 °C.
Lagos: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Lagos's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Lagos's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Lagos's 2050 climate is closest to Quezon City, Philippines — about 12,800 km away.
| Lagos today | Lagos 2050 | Quezon City today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 26.8 °C | 27.9 °C | 27.6 °C |
| Average daily high | 28.7 °C | 29.8 °C | 30.4 °C |
| Hottest day | 32 °C | 33 °C | 35 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 1,779 mm | 1,761 mm | 2,419 mm |
A year in Lagos, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Lagos
Tropical nights in Lagos (never cooler than 20 °C)
Dangerous-heat days in Lagos (heat index ≥ 39 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.2 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.7–1.7 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 80 a year (1991–2020) to about 192 by 2040–2059.
- Every night is already a tropical night (above 20 °C), so night-time heat stress rises with no cool season to recover in.
Dangerous heat in Lagos
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 8 by 2050 and 72 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 226 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Lagos would average 28.2 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 33 °C and 216 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Lagos be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Lagos's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 27.9 °C (range 27.4–28.5 °C across climate models), compared with 26.8 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 33 °C (91 °F).
Is Lagos getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.2 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Lagos, about as fast as the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Lagos feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Lagos's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Quezon City, Philippines today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Lagos's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 28.2 °C and the hottest day at about 33 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026