Montreal in 2050: climate change in numbers
Montreal has warmed 1.5 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Shenyang, China today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 8.5–10.1 °C.
Montreal: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Montreal's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Montreal's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Montreal's 2050 climate is closest to Shenyang, China — about 10,200 km away.
| Montreal today | Montreal 2050 | Shenyang today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 7.1 °C | 9.4 °C | 9.1 °C |
| Average daily high | 11.9 °C | 14.1 °C | 14.5 °C |
| Hottest day | 33 °C | 36 °C | 35 °C |
| Frost days | 138 | 121 | 146 |
| Rainfall | 1,158 mm | 1,217 mm | 821 mm |
A year in Montreal, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Montreal
Tropical nights in Montreal (never cooler than 20 °C)
Frost days in Montreal (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 2.2 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.4–3.0 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) rise from about 10 a year (1991–2020) to about 24 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 12 to 28 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Frost days fall from about 138 to 121 a year: shorter, milder winters.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 6%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Montreal
Days a year when the heat index — temperature and humidity combined — reaches 39 °C, the level the US National Weather Service calls Danger: 0 in 1995–2014, 0 by 2050 and 0 by 2090 under intermediate emissions, or 4 by 2090 if emissions keep rising. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Montreal would average 10.0 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 36 °C and 32 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Montreal be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Montreal's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 9.4 °C (range 8.5–10.1 °C across climate models), compared with 7.1 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 36 °C (96 °F).
Is Montreal getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 1.5 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Montreal, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Montreal feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Montreal's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Shenyang, China today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Montreal's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 10.0 °C and the hottest day at about 36 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026