Saint Petersburg in 2050: climate change in numbers
Saint Petersburg has warmed 2.3 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — faster than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Minsk, Belarus today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 6.2–8.5 °C.
Saint Petersburg: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Saint Petersburg's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Saint Petersburg's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Saint Petersburg's 2050 climate is closest to Minsk, Belarus — about 700 km away.
| Saint Petersburg today | Saint Petersburg 2050 | Minsk today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 5.2 °C | 7.1 °C | 6.6 °C |
| Average daily high | 8.0 °C | 9.8 °C | 10.1 °C |
| Hottest day | 28 °C | 31 °C | 31 °C |
| Frost days | 144 | 116 | 137 |
| Rainfall | 710 mm | 739 mm | 744 mm |
A year in Saint Petersburg, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 30 °C (86 °F) in Saint Petersburg
Frost days in Saint Petersburg (below 0 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.9 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 1.0–3.3 °C).
- Days above 30 °C (86 °F) stay relatively rare: about 1 a year today and 2 by 2040–2059.
- Frost days fall from about 144 to 116 a year: shorter, milder winters.
- Annual rainfall is projected to increase by about 5%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Saint Petersburg
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Saint Petersburg is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Saint Petersburg would average 7.6 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 32 °C and 2 days above 30 °C (86 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Saint Petersburg with…Climate change in RussiaHelsinkiMoscowStockholmWarsaw
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Saint Petersburg be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Saint Petersburg's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 7.1 °C (range 6.2–8.5 °C across climate models), compared with 5.2 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 31 °C (88 °F).
Is Saint Petersburg getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 2.3 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Saint Petersburg, faster than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Saint Petersburg feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Saint Petersburg's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Minsk, Belarus today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Saint Petersburg's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 7.6 °C and the hottest day at about 32 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026