Sea level by city · Philippines
Sea level rise in Manila: how high will the water get?
Under intermediate emissions, sea level at Manila is projected to rise about 46 cm by 2050 and 112 cm by 2100 compared with 1995–2014 — or 133 cm if emissions stay very high. That is 56 cm more than the global average, mostly because the land around Manila is sinking (subsidence), which adds to the rise in the ocean itself.
Projected sea level rise at Manila, 2020–2150 (cm vs 1995–2014)
| Year | Low | Intermediate | Very high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | +23 cm (18–29) | +23 cm (19–28) | +24 cm (20–28) |
| 2050 | +44 cm (39–52) | +46 cm (40–54) | +48 cm (43–57) |
| 2070 | +66 cm (58–78) | +70 cm (62–84) | +77 cm (67–92) |
| 2100 | +99 cm (81–123) | +112 cm (96–137) | +133 cm (113–164) |
| 2150 | +155 cm (121–199) | +180 cm (148–227) | +220 cm (176–286) |
What it means for Manila
The average rise is only part of the story. What people notice first is flooding: higher seas let ordinary high tides and storm surges reach further inland. The IPCC projects that extreme sea levels which used to occur once a century will happen at least once a year at more than half of the world's tide gauge locations by 2100.
Sea level will keep rising for centuries even after emissions stop, because the deep ocean keeps warming and ice sheets keep melting. Under very high emissions, rises well beyond these ranges cannot be ruled out if parts of the Antarctic ice sheet become unstable — see tipping points.
To see which streets are at risk, use a local flood map: the projections here can be explored station by station in the NASA Sea Level Projection Tool.
Manila climate in 2050Global sea level todayAll coastal cities
Frequently asked questions
Will Manila be underwater?
Not in the sense of the whole city disappearing this century, but the sea at Manila is projected to rise about 112 cm by 2100 under intermediate emissions (likely range 96–137 cm), and about 133 cm under very high emissions. Low-lying districts face more frequent flooding from high tides and storm surges well before then; whether a specific street floods depends on local elevation and flood defences.
How much will sea level rise in Manila by 2050?
About 46 cm (18 inches) compared with 1995–2014 under an intermediate scenario, with a likely range of 40–54 cm. Up to 2050 the emissions scenarios give similar results, because much of this rise is already locked in.
Why is sea level rise in Manila different from the global average?
Projections at a single coast include vertical land motion (sinking or rising land), changes in ocean currents and the gravitational effects of melting ice sheets. That is 56 cm more than the global average, mostly because the land around Manila is sinking (subsidence), which adds to the rise in the ocean itself.
Source: IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections (Garner et al. 2021; Fox-Kemper et al. 2021), via the NASA Sea Level Projection Tool. Global averages: IPCC AR6 WG1 Table 9.9.
Licence: CC BY 4.0. Relative sea level change incl. vertical land motion, vs 1995–2014, medium confidence; likely range = 17th–83rd percentile.