Melbourne in 2050: climate change in numbers
Melbourne has warmed 0.8 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — slower than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, it is heading for a climate that no large city has today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 15.1–15.8 °C.
Melbourne: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Melbourne's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Melbourne's climate will feel like
We compared Melbourne's projected 2050 climate with today's climate in more than 1,000 large cities. None is a close match; the nearest is Los Angeles, United States. Scientists call this a novel climate: conditions the city's people, buildings and infrastructure have no local experience of.
| Melbourne today | Melbourne 2050 | Los Angeles today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 14.4 °C | 15.5 °C | 17.8 °C |
| Average daily high | 19.2 °C | 20.4 °C | 24.4 °C |
| Hottest day | 39 °C | 40 °C | 40 °C |
| Frost days | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 654 mm | 611 mm | 363 mm |
A year in Melbourne, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Melbourne
Tropical nights in Melbourne (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.2 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.7–1.4 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) stay relatively rare: about 6 a year today and 8 by 2040–2059.
Dangerous heat in Melbourne
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Melbourne is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Melbourne
The sea at Melbourne is projected to rise about 17 cm by 2050 and 49 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Melbourne.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Melbourne would average 15.8 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 40 °C and 9 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
More places
Compare Melbourne with…Climate change in AustraliaSydneyBrisbaneAucklandPerth
Frequently asked questions
How hot will Melbourne be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Melbourne's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 15.5 °C (range 15.1–15.8 °C across climate models), compared with 14.4 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 40 °C (103 °F).
Is Melbourne getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.8 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Melbourne, slower than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Melbourne feel like in 2050?
No large city today has a climate quite like Melbourne's projected 2050 climate. The closest match is Los Angeles, United States, but the fit is loose — Melbourne is heading into a climate with no close equivalent among the world's large cities.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Melbourne's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 15.8 °C and the hottest day at about 40 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026