Perth in 2050: climate change in numbers
Perth has warmed 0.5 °C, comparing the last ten years (2016–2025) with 1951–1980 — slower than the world as a whole (+1.1 °C). By 2050, its climate is projected to feel like Algiers, Algeria today.
2050 = 2040–2059 average, intermediate emissions (SSP2-4.5), median of CMIP6 climate models. “Today” = 1991–2020. Model range for average temperature: 19.6–20.1 °C.
Perth: average annual temperature, 1950–2025 (°C)
1950 → 2025. Perth's warming stripes: each stripe is one year's average temperature.
What Perth's climate will feel like
Matching temperature, heat extremes, frost days and rainfall against the current climate of more than 1,000 large cities, Perth's 2050 climate is closest to Algiers, Algeria — about 13,900 km away.
| Perth today | Perth 2050 | Algiers today | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average temperature | 18.7 °C | 19.8 °C | 18.6 °C |
| Average daily high | 22.7 °C | 24.0 °C | 22.2 °C |
| Hottest day | 37 °C | 39 °C | 37 °C |
| Frost days | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rainfall | 592 mm | 531 mm | 621 mm |
A year in Perth, day by day
Each square is one day of the year; the coloured squares are the days that cross the threshold in an average year.
Days above 35 °C (95 °F) in Perth
Tropical nights in Perth (never cooler than 20 °C)
What changes by 2050
- The average temperature rises a further 1.1 °C compared with 1991–2020 (model range 0.9–1.4 °C).
- Days above 35 °C (95 °F) stay relatively rare: about 5 a year today and 9 by 2040–2059.
- Tropical nights — when it never cools below 20 °C — increase from about 48 to 75 a year, making heatwaves harder on health.
- Annual rainfall is projected to decrease by about 9%, though precipitation projections are less certain than temperature.
Dangerous heat in Perth
Even by 2090 under very high emissions, Perth is not projected to have days with a heat index of 39 °C or more in a typical year. See where dangerous heat spreads worldwide.
Sea level at Perth
The sea at Perth is projected to rise about 20 cm by 2050 and 58 cm by 2100 (IPCC AR6, intermediate emissions). See the full sea level projection for Perth.
Under high emissions
If emissions keep rising (SSP5-8.5), Perth would average 20.1 °C by 2040–2059, with a hottest day around 39 °C and 10 days above 35 °C (95 °F) a year. By mid-century the scenarios are still close; the choices made now mostly decide what happens after 2050 — see the world in 2050.
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Frequently asked questions
How hot will Perth be in 2050?
Under an intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), Perth's average annual temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at about 19.8 °C (range 19.6–20.1 °C across climate models), compared with 18.7 °C in 1991–2020. The hottest day of a typical year reaches about 39 °C (101 °F).
Is Perth getting hotter?
Yes. The last ten years (2016–2025) averaged 0.5 °C warmer than 1951–1980 in Perth, slower than the global average of 1.1 °C over the same period (Copernicus ERA5).
Which city will Perth feel like in 2050?
By 2040–2059, Perth's climate is projected to resemble the climate of Algiers, Algeria today, based on temperature, heat extremes, frost and rainfall.
What would happen under high emissions?
Under a very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Perth's average temperature in 2040–2059 is projected at 20.1 °C and the hottest day at about 39 °C. The differences between scenarios grow much larger after 2050.
Sources: World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CMIP6 0.25°, ERA5 0.25°); Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis (C3S/ECMWF); NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Thrasher et al. 2022); GeoNames
Method: Delta method: ERA5 1995–2014 + CMIP6 ensemble change 2040–2059 vs 1995–2014. Values are for the ~25 km grid cell containing the city and can differ from a single weather station, especially for coastal and mountain cities. Methodology · Download CSV
Licence: Derived from ERA5 (CC BY 4.0, Copernicus/ECMWF), CMIP6 via World Bank CCKP (CC BY-SA 4.0) and GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). City data on this site: CC BY-SA 4.0. · Generated 17 October 2026